Feb 27, 2014
Feb 26, 2014
As the fighting in Syria worsens , becoming clearer the military weakness of the triad Assad - Hezbollah - Iran. According to reports , Israel found the weak point of this , and it was there that she presses . This technique was Napoleon 's favorite maneuver ,' manoeuvre sur les derrières,' and Hezbollah and Assad feel helpless in this weak point . But what about the strategic implications of the move ? On behind the scenes of the Israeli bombing - seemingly in Syria and Lebanon.
Mysterious Israeli bombing : Has military weakness of Hezbollah - Assad been found?
By Dr. Guy Bechor
Fighting in the northern suburbs of Damascus and the mountains Kalmon between the Assad regime and various Sunni insurgent groups - are at their fiercest . After the total collapse of the " Geneva Conference " and personal failure of U.S. Secretary of State , John Kerry ,further fighting flared in Syria , and today is full on , with the number of fatalities approaching 150,000 . Iranians have decided to take an active part in the battles , they have no choice , and are sending experts to Syria , weapons and soldiers. The key fighter is Hezbollah , the Lebanese Shi'ite militia , maintaining Iran's vital interests . Once it was the front against Israel , and today it is saving the regime of Bashar Assad , which Iran sees as the supreme interest for her.
Hezbollah needs to move into Syria active fighters and military equipment as needed , especially missiles. But here is proving to be the weak link of this Shiite axis : the border between Syria and Lebanon .
Once it was a powerful Hezbollah , smuggling missiles and military equipment from Syria to Lebanon . The border was controlled , at least in many points , and Hezbollah used it . But the situation has changed . Today the border is full of Sunni insurgents , harassing convoys of Hezbollah and harming them using roadside bombs and missiles. The exposed crossing for Hezbollah has been difficult , but it has no choice , this is the life line for Syrian Shiite and Hezbollah is operating under instructions from Tehran .
According to reports from around the world this week Israel attacked convoys of weapons from Lebanon to Syria. Once it was going in the opposite direction , but now weapons , including advanced missiles , making their way from warehouses in Lebanon to Syria. When the weapons are taken out of the warehouses , and must be exposed , there is vulnerability and weakness of the Iranian axis - Hezbollah - Assad . And weaknesses that Israel struck , according to the world media , and perhaps even struck.
Hezbollah , Syria and Iran feel helpless in the face of these air attacks , because if they admit it, they confirm themselves their weapons are flowing from Lebanon to Syria , along with Hezbollah fighters . They also turn the attention of Sunni , Salafi insurgents to this border . And therefore they are silent , the only way left . Everything they say will only cause more damage. Ironically, the defense minister in 1982, Ariel Sharon wanted to sever the ties between Syria and Lebanon geographically , and now such a thing becomes reality.
Israel created a situation of a butterfly screw . To either tighten the screw or loosen it . Shiite need these crossings as a matter of existence. It is a chink in the armor of the Iranian - Syrian - Hezbollah allience .Israel is using this butterfly Screw politically and militarily as an asset .
What happens behind the scenes of the alleged air raid ?
1 Assad troubles are escalating and his expanding operations at the border between Syria and Lebanon , a border that actually does not exist anymore, indicate that . Once the weapons were passing from Syria to Lebanon , but now the direction is reversed. These weapons are designed to come into play in battles in central Syria , indicating the intensity of the fighting, and the degree of severity .
This is a war of attrition , a clear indication of the direction the war is taking, is still not in sight , but each side is paying a heavy toll , especially Bashar's regime .
2. Hezbollah can not take over the breached border , which is a growing problem . It's not just that it was trying to get into Syria , but also that the Sunnis are trying to incite Lebanon against Hezbollah. Car bombs targeting enormous transports of explosives , has been exploding at a rate of twice a week in Hezbollah command areas in southern Beirut . This border is the weak link of the Hezbollah not only with regard to Syria , but also with regard to the protection and its existence . This is the way it penetrates the border , but also its its enemies .
3 high quality intelligence . Iran Axis - Assad - Hezbollah should be very worried about the quality of military intelligence . How does the army know when's the important convoy on its way along the border , where and at what time , and why not another particular convoy . Actually , no intelligence organization in the world has such high quality intelligence about what is happening in Syria , Iran and Lebanon as the IDF , which should greatly worry the Axis of Evil . That creates a kind of paranoia , probably justified, and lack of confidence. In this climate of pressure, they may make mistakes.
Why the paranoia ? Because they never know when and if an aerial strike will be upon them.
4 In the past it was an Israeli attack on introducing weapons from Syria into Lebanon , but here you will notice that the movement is reversed. If this weapon was designed for use in the Civil War , why should Israel intervene ? It will still be clarified . Is it our job to serve as a kind of " judge " along the long border between Syria and Lebanon ?
5 Hezbollah continues to bleed as it has never bled before. Hundreds of fighters are being killed in Syria , and the bodies are transferred secretly and at night to Lebanon for burial quietly and fast .Hezbollah is also involved in the civil war Sunni - Allawi in northern Lebanese areas of Tripoli , and it suffers every week car bombs and suicide Sunni bombers in areas of its command in southern Beirut , Regional Beer Hassan , or the North Valley Lebanon , where it has military bases . Sometimes Sunni insurgents are shelling bases in the Bekaa from inside Syria.
6 Assad was brutally crushed in the last two weeks , even though he and his Iranian his Iranian backers , have responded with uncompromising ferocity . Assad has already lost the Southern and Northern Syria , and now he is fighting for what's left of the center. Unfortunately , each side sees this campaign as matter of life and death , so he does not want to nor can he give up . War in Syria is constantly changing , as and when internal and external factors intervene ..
7 According to foreign reports, Israel signaled Hezbollah military through indirect and diplomatic means that it was not interested in engaging militarily with it . Direct hostilities against Israel by Hezbollah is certainly strong , it has a reserve that can borrow fighters and fire missiles . But it did not expect and is powerless in light of the Israeli attack from its flanks , and , the border between Lebanon and Syria . This was a favorite battle tactic of Napoleon.A surprise attack from the flanks , 'manoeuvre sur les derrières' , as he called it . The method of Napoleon : his army half concentrated against the enemy in front, and the other half hid and attacked from the flanks. The surprised enemy was beaten because he had not expected to come at him from the side. Worse still, as the enemy , turn to face this threat , and largely abandoned the front they lost the battle . For example , The Battle of Arcole ( November 1796 ) , the Austrians faced Napoleon's army , and this flank attack led the French to victory .
8 All power of Hezbollah in Lebanon is crashing , because its face was always south, towards Israel , with the abandonment of his neck to the north and east . Now all its enemies are coming against it from the north and east , so its old battlements are useless . A dug-in Hezbollah also made it static and vulnerable. Had the IDF used distraction techniques and a classic maneuver , the Second Lebanon War would have attacked Hezbollah from its wings , where it is vulnerable, North and Nast. As did in Sidon Chief of Staff Rafael Eitan in the First Lebanon war against the PLO .
9 Iran is deeply involved in the fighting in Syria , but it is very far away , and the distance hurts . It also has no common border with Syria .The Iraq supply routes are very difficult , so it holds the satellite founded organization , Hezbollah. Iran is having trouble supporting the Bashar regime , and understands its power is not as vast , as she would hope .
Will Hezbollah or the rest of the military react against Israel ? No doubt they are seething , but to open a military front with Israel , it would be suicide for them , and they do not want to commit suicide, at least not yet against the Israelis. Could also they come from the flanks? We'll wait and see .
10 Finally, there is no doubt that this is a clever tactic of the Israeli army , but for what purpose? If the past military involvements it was justified with five IDF bombings in Syria and Lebanon , for transporting weapons . Today bombardment is due to transfers of weapons in the civil war . Is it in Israel's interest to intervene and take a side in the civil war ? NO , this is the basic position of this site from the first day , three years ago .
There is no doubt that the Sunnis would like to see the Israel march into Syria , but it is certainly NOT in Israel's interest . It worries me to hear news of tightening ties between Israel and the rebels. Which rebel , Salafis ,Al Qaeda Al Nusra?The Nationalist rebels are in retreat , so it is best not to contact any party , this is not our war .
War in Syria is worsening , and it involving other countries. The biggest asset we have is neutrality , and it would be very serious if we sacrifice this asset. In this instance the strategy needs to overcome even the most brilliant military tactics .